25 February 2015
Why Russia is not seeking peace, and what it is doing to crush the resistance of Ukraine by any means
During a recent interview, Vladimir Putin talked a lot about Ukraine. He warned against “revanchism” in Crimea and recommended that dialogue be established “with the southeast.” All this is familiar. But he sounded out some new thoughts too. More precisely, they were not new, but rather party of the new Putin edition. For example, there were discussions about the possibility of an open Russo-Ukrainian war.
Although Putin formally rejected the possibility, calling such a scenario apocalyptic, was he simply talking about this for no reason? After all, verbal tinsel is soon forgotten, but what is said about Russo-Ukrainian war at the presidential level – this is imprinted on the minds of Russians. The Leader allowed it. More on this theme was not forbidden, but legal. I think there will now be a flurry of speeches by various Russian politicians and public figures. By the way, the prominent political weathervane Zhirinovsky as always was first to feel where the wind was blowing, promising all out war and destruction.
Putin is rude, shamelessly provoking, and fueling the fighting spirit with stories about how “miners and tractor drivers” are destroying the Ukrainian army. Apparently, upon hearing this, an old-timer of the Russian army is supposed to imagine how he will proudly reach Lviv.
The fact that a large war is possible can be ascertained from the nature of Russian propaganda. It did not change after Minsk. Moreover, its idiocy has grown into the openly schizophrenic “Antimaidan.” The intensity is constantly increasing. Russian citizens are scared by all the new horror stories about the Maidan, Ukraine and EU.
Everything that is said on Russian television is not only ugly; it is also very expensive. Huge funds are required of Russia in time of crisis to maintain all these propaganda mouthpieces. And they all continue their habitual movement toward forming the face of the Ukrainians into an image of the enemy. And if the Russian government spends huge resources to whip up their citizens about the need to kill Ukrainians, it is all being done for a reason.
In the Kremlin, they are still convinced they are not at war with the Ukrainian people, but rather with a small number of “Right Sectorists” and “agents of NATO,” and that one decisive blow will be enough to cause their defeat. After that, the “pacification of Ukraine” will come in a short time.
Would the Kremlin support this whole mechanism in action without trying to relieve it if someone (even theoretically) allowed for the possibility of peace? I think that in this case there would be test runs of some kind of conciliatory information. But instead we see that, to the contrary, the propaganda of war is rising to a new level.
All this shows that no one in the Kremlin is looking at peace as an option. There are clearly betting on war as a way to solve all problems.
I think that, before there is heightened military activity there will be an ultimatum of surrender issued to Ukraine. Federalization, Crimea, Medvedchuk as prime minister, and so on. Who will give voice to this? One of naphthalene Ukrainian leaders whom they are just now showing to the people may come in handy. I do not exclude the possibility that Yanukovych and Azarov could form some kind of “Salvation Committee,” putting forward a plan for “Ukraine’s liberation.” Well, a thesis will be announced for the dismemberment of Ukraine, which most Ukrainians themselves are allegedly moving towards.
I do not think that everything will continue as an “attack of the unrecognized republics,” because such methods have demonstrated their inefficiency. Putin sees that events in the Donbas themselves do not appear to Ukrainians to be sufficient argument for the adoption of surrender. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the pressure. To the maximum.
Options for concrete formation of pressure may vary. There is a threat of terrorist attacks and bloody fighting, which will allow the Russian Federation to intervene openly in the form of a “peacekeeping” mission. The poor “people of the southeast” will request this. Successes in Russian diplomacy will motivate Putin toward this strategy.
I misspoke. Successes. At least, that is, successes in this cannibalistic system of coordinates on which Kremlin lives. You thought Russian diplomacy was Churkin and Honduras? It’s not that simple.
The main thing that Russia has achieved at this stage is to convince the West that military assistance to Ukraine will provoke aggression from Moscow. Which, of course, is not true. Russia will be aggressive anyway, but against the Ukrainian army, which continues to be in a state of virtual isolation. Lulling the world, gently isolating Ukraine, Russia believes it can go on the attack.
No one in the Kremlin is looking at peace as an option. They are clearly betting on war as a way to solve all problems. The second victory is persuading the world that Russia might launch a global nuclear war. Which is also a lie, but effective. This will facilitate the strategy of “appeasement of Russia.”
Russia has achieved the main goal. The whole world is formally on the side of Ukraine, but they are not hurrying to help us effectively. Putin is satisfied with that.
I think that events will develop quickly. For no kind of protracted conflict can be included in the plans of the Kremlin. Direct aggression against Ukraine will force the EU and the US to respond. Therefore, the operation should be planned such that it will solve all problems before the actions of the West can have any effect.
But there is one “but”: in Russia they still do not understand Ukraine, and they are not capable of calculating the consequences of their actions. The Kremlin is still convinced that the war is not with the Ukrainian people, but a small number of “Right Sectorists” and “agents of NATO,” and that a decisive blow will be enough for their defeat, after which the “pacification of Ukraine” will be a matter of a short time.
But all of the last year has shown how poorly Ukraine is understood in Moscow, and that they do not want to understand. This is why until recently the Kremlin adventures have had an unanticipated effect.
The results of all these adventures will be terrible and unpredictable for all concerned.
~ Petro Oleshchuk, Political Analyst